How Big will Sex and the City go?

There's a good piece on Variety's website about the box office potential of the Sex and the City movie. Here's something to think about:

There's no escaping the fact that the movie is a chick flick with strong appeal among an older femme demo but questionable interest among others. All the magazine coverage in the world -- 63 pages in the May 23 edition of Entertainment Weekly alone -- and "Sex and the City" TV marathons haven't really moved the needle among men, many of whom suggest they'd rather be shot than sit through the movie.

I've doubted Sex's box office chances since the beginning of May (but then again I didn't see the Speed Racer flop coming, so what do I know). The fans are rabid, but outside the fans, who cares? A bunch of female-targeted films have done well lately - Made of Honor is on course to make $50 million, and Baby Mama will make over $60 - but those aren't summer blockbuster grosses, they're modest hit grosses, and neither of them were targeting such a niche audience. So if the flick doesn't extend beyond existing fans, the question becomes: how many of them are there?

We'll find out at the end of the weekend...

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